Winter Snow Forecast 2025-26 - La Niña Chances on the Rise
Greetings, weather nerds. The winter snow forecast predictions are starting to take shape. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is calling for the development of weak La Niña conditions this winter. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was neutral through the end of August 2025, with near-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña come October. They are forecasting a 71% chance for La Niña conditions from October through December 2025 and a 54% chance for La Niña to remain from December 2025 to February 2026.
Not sure what all this ENSO, La Niña. El Niño talk is all about? ENSO is a reflection of sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. It affects global atmospheric circulation patterns in a somewhat predictable way and is the gauge most meteorologists use to forecast long-range winter weather patterns. ENSO has two distinct tracks, El Niño and La Niña. El Niño reflects warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures. La Niña reflects cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures. These changes in temperature alter the jet stream and thus influence temperature and precipitation amounts for much of North America.
If you want to learn more about La Niña vs. El Niño and what the different conditions mean for your ski season, you should read La Niña, El Niño and Your Ski Season.
Winter Snow Forecast: Graphic representation of La Niña climate influence courtesy of NOAA
La Niña vs. El Niño and Winter Weather
In general, La Niña (cooler sea surface temps) is typically associated with bringing cooler and wetter than average conditions to Northwest regions, including British Columbia, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and sometimes parts of Utah.
On the other hand, El Niño (warmer sea surface temps) is generally associated with wetter than average conditions in the Southwest, including the Sierra Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and sometimes Utah.
Of course, ENSO’s influence is nuanced. It’s science, but it’s not an exact science. Places like Utah, Colorado and Wyoming can really go either way with either scenario, depending on how deep the ENSO influence extends. And sometimes the weather just seems to do whatever the hell it wants.
Here are the latest NOAA seasonal temperature and precipitation maps for November 2025 through January 2026.
A La Niña Winter Favors the Following:
- Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored from the southern tier of the U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, eastern seaboard, New England and northern Alaska. These probabilities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas.
- Below-average temperatures are most likely in southern Alaska, with below-average temperatures slightly favored from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains.
- The remaining areas have equal chances of below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.
- Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, and above-average precipitation is also favored in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and across the northern tier of the U.S. These probabilities are strongest in portions of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky.
- The greatest likelihood for drier-than-average conditions is in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Texas and southern New Mexico.
- Much of California, the central Plains states and the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C., have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation.
And if you prefer the old school approach, check out what the Old Farmers' Almanac (founded 1792) has to say about the winter snow forecast or the latest Farmers' Almanac (founded 1818) winter weather outlook. Yes, that's right, there are two Farmers' Almanacs. While the names are similar, they were founded at different times and in different places, and offer different takes on the winter snow forecast for 2025-26
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