Weather

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center we transitioned out of the El Nino influence in late May. Although many forecasts still call for a neutral  ENSO effect for the late summer and fall, NOAA says some data is leaning toward the development of a La NIna influence.

"The majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions (between -0.5^oC to +0.5^oC in the Niño-3.4 region) through early 2011. However, over the last several months, a growing number of models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate the onset of La Niña conditions during June-August 2010. There is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation. Therefore, conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June-August 2010."

National Weather Service forecast looks encouraging...

FALLING SNOW LEVELS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY
WILL TURN RAIN INTO SNOW AT CASCADE PASS LEVELS IN NORTH OREGON
AND SOUTH WASHINGTON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP AS LOW AS 2500 FEET
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL...WITH
UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

Fall weather is forecast to hit the west coast with some vigor this week. The effects of the front should ripple accross the western states all week. From the forecast discussions, it sounds like the storm is the remnants of a typhoon from the West Pacific. Northern California is due to receive the brunt of the storm, but given its tropical origins, the temps and related snow levels are forecast to remain pretty high.

as per the NWS Tahoe area forecast...

MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF SUPER TYPHOON MELOR CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A POWERFUL JET STREAM TO DEVELOP A STRONG STORM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS FOR INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

I recently saw some more interesting discussions and stats related to the El Nino influence on the Pacific Northwest. Mark Moore, director of the Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center, wrote a discussion on El Nino influence back in 2007.  The article has some interesting precip charts and points readers to Amar Andalkar’s web site which offers additional data on historical snowdepth data.

Thanks to everyone who subscribed during our Mountain Khakis pant give-away. We will contact the 10 lucky winners tomorrow, October 13.

The Labor Day Weekend forecast for the Cacades is turning very fall-like this weekend. The Northern Oregon forecast includes the following: 

AFTERNOON VALLEY TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT THE CASCADE
PASSES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS
IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO DROP DOWN TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE.

It is also the time of year that the various winter snow-season predictions begin to fly around the internet. The NOAA Climate and Prediction Center is forecasting an El Nino influence this winter. El Nino is not the most popular of forecasts for NW skiers as the warmer ocean currents associated with El Nino typically impact our freezing levels in the wrong direction. Historically, El Nino can mean above normal precip inthe Rockies, especially the southwest Rockies.

There are, of course, countless places to read about the El Nino Southern Ocilation - commonly known as ENSO - and what it may really mean. A great place to start is the article Demystifying ENSO that appeared in Off-Piste Issue 38 last October.

The Old Farmer's Almanac has their forecast up for the season as well. These guys have been producing longterm seasonal outlooks since the late 1700's. They suggest

Winter temperatures will be above normal, with the coldest periods in early to mid-December and early February. Precipitation will be above normal, with below-normal snowfall from Reno to Salt Lake City and above-normal snowfall in most other areas. The snowiest periods will occur in early and mid-November, mid- and late December, and mid- and late January.

Northwest skiers can read at length about ENSO and its historical influences over Washington and Oregon at skimountaineer.com. There is an interesting ENSO discussion here based on 2004-5 and 05-06 data.

    Following last winter's banner snow season for much of the western US and the predominant La Nina influence that presided over the winter, I frequently hear talk of La Nina and El Nino, and how it may or may not impact the quality of our upcoming snow season. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released its ENSO forecast discussion on October 9. The CPC is calling for ENSO neutral influence, at least until early 2009. ENSO, or El Nino/ Southern Ocilation,...

Read More "ENSO La Nina El Nino"

        We are having an incredible round of late summer weather here in Oregon, with some great 30 degree temp swing days (50 at night and 80 during the day). This is not the case everywhere though.   Word from our friends at Alyeska Hostel in Girdwood, AK is 16 consecutive days of rain with the snowline flirting with four thousand feet and no obvious changes in this pattern for the near future. This pattern could offer some early season turns up north.   Word...

Read More "Sun, Rain, Snow, Reports From the Mountains"

We just had a picture perfect fall weekend here in Oregon (see hood photo above) but it does not look like it will be like this for long. Winter is making another attempt at setting this week. This is from the National Weather Service

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADE PASSES LATER THIS WEEK..

A VERY ACTIVE STORM TRACK IN THE PACIFIC WILL BRING PLENTY OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAY LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4000 FEET.

SNOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE CASCADES WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY
TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 4000 FEET FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IFTHE EVENT UNFOLDS AS ANTICIPATED. A WARM AND WET STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE THE PASSES.

The latest cycle to blow through our area gave the mountains a very wintery look. This image of Mount Adams, taken by Darryl Lloyd, was shot right from Darryl's house in Hood River. Darryl has some incredible landscape shots of the region on his website. The current forecast calls for a bit of a freezing level roller coaster (what else is new around here) but there is plenty of precip on its way. We've got sun in town right now but the clouds remain stacked up to the west and north.

The Oregon Climate Center (OCC) recently issued their 2007-08 winter forecast and are anticpating a La Nina influence and this typically means cooler and wetter for the NW US. I try not to put too much hope in a winter forecast made in August/September, but hey, I'm not going to complain, not yet anyway.  According to the OCC, Below are the factors we used to generate this year's forecast, along with the bottom line for this fall and winter: temperatures will be slightly cooler than...

Read More "La Nina Predictions"